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What do you think of this problem?
Suppose you are on a game show, and are given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the other doors goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
some of you might be familiar with it, I just came across it a few weeks ago and find it interesting.
This is a psychological trick question.
When it is 3 doors, chances are 33%.
When one is eliminated, chances are 50%.
People change from their initial gut guess because they feel like the elimination of the third door makes the first gut guess less certain.
I would think that not switching is better because its the initial guess, and I like to follow my gut. I think that eliminating the third door is a trick.
I hope this helps.
